In case you missed it, Canes and Coffee has set up two menu pages that people can bookmark to find simple chronological lists of articles on two of the main summer topics.
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Part 1 of the ongoing series started by identifying specific Hurricanes’ needs. And more recently in both the Monday Coffee Shop polls and discussion and also yesterday’s Part 5 of the series, both I and readers debated rankings for players who could be added and how much we would/would not pay to do so.
In the coming days, I will certainly get down in the weeds and evaluate most of the numerous options theoretically available via expansion draft maneuvering, regular trades and free agency, but with a long day today and a mostly empty tank energy-wise, today’s Daily Cup of Joe will offer a bit of a diversion and offer a very simplistic look at my priorities for adding a forward that completely ignores the complexity of cost and whether players are even available at all. No I am not going to seize Connor McDavid. I will at least stick within the realm of players who have had some chatter and could feasibly be available.
Plan A – Nathan MacKinnon
If Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic continues down the path of doing something drastic and cannot get a good return for Matt Duchene or Gabriel Landeskog, I would be first in line to bid on Nathan MacKinnon.
MacKinnon might not be in the same tier as Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid and maybe a handful of other top shelf centers, but wherever the cut line is to make a second tier, I think MacKinnon is in it.
He is everything a team wants in a first line scoring center. He plays fast and attacks and brings a reasonably equal balance between finishing, playmaking and just pushing pace that puts defensemen in tough spots regularly. That yields scoring, but equally importantly, it also yields more scoring from whoever plays on his wings. As I noted in Part 1, the goal is not simply to add a 60-80-point player to the lineup but to also make sure that player is the type of offensive catalyst who will also lift whoever he plays with. In such a scenario, the Hurricanes net 15-25 points from the added player but probably an equal number from his line mates benefiting.
I think Matt Duchene could be that kind of player too, but I put MacKinnon a notch higher in terms of desirability for a couple reasons. He is only 21 years old and still with upside. He is signed for six years at about $6.5 million (actual salary) which is not dirt cheap but is a very fair number if he in fact proves to be a capable offensive C1. His scoring numbers thus far in his career are actually not eye-popping. He put up 63 points as an 18-year old in his rookie season that started only a month after he turned 18 years old. His high since then is 53 points in 2016-17, but I would rate that as decent output on an Avalanche team that was flat out horrible and out of the postseason mix really early. Finally, he brings another right shot to the lineup and for the power play and even has experience at right wing which provides some flexibility down the road in the event that Sebastian Aho eventually makes his way back to his natural center position.
As of right now, I have a big list of players for whom I would not include Noah Hanifin in a trade, and a short list of players where I go back and forth. Nathan is the one player for whom I would begrudgingly part ways with Hanifin to boost the offense. The two players are both high draft pedigree/high ceiling players with MacKinnon draft first overall in 2013 and Hanifin fifth overall in 2015. The two are comparable in age; with his late birthday, MacKinnon is only 1 year and 5 months older than Hanifin. And both players project to be at least top half of the roster players for a long time. MacKinnon even brings the certainty that he is already locked up contractually for six years at a not astronomical price. And maybe most significantly, MacKinnon is clearly established as a top half of the roster player right now with a decent track record in exactly that role. Hanifin is (hopefully) just starting to reach that level. After a ‘meh’ at best first two-thirds of 2016-17, he finished strong and looked capable in a top 4 role. But in terms of accounting for risk and putting in a floor if the loftiest of hopes are not reached, I think MacKinnon is significantly more de-risked than Hanifin right now. Finally, losing a good player always creates new needs, but especially looking forward, the Hurricanes are more capable of back filling Hanifin’s spot than top line center’s.
Plan B – Henrik Zetterberg
I wrote up the interesting possibility of Henrik Zetterberg in some detail in Part 3 of the series that identified four interesting contract anomalies that could make players good fits in terms of needs but even more so financially. In short, at 36 years old, Zetterberg has four years remaining on his contract with a fairly hefty salary cap hit of $6.1 million, but when one peels off the wrapper and looks at the details, his salary goes $7 million, $3.35 million, $1 million and $1 million. When I break it down, I consider it to be a two-year deal for $5.2 million per year followed by an uncertain but very inexpensive two years after that. It might be that Zetterberg retires and skips the last two cheap years of his deal. If not, I have to believe that even at 38-40 years old Zetterberg will still easily be worth $1 million per year.
I have queries out here and there to try to get a better read on what Detroit is up to this season but no definitive answer. But again, this article is not about saying for certain whether he is or is not available. A scenario whereby Detroit goes full rebuild and starts looking to restock their prospect pool could see Zetterberg available for a haul of futures. That obviously matches up well with what Francis ideally wants to spend. The Hurricanes could offer a healthy mix of draft picks, prospects and perhaps a young roster player. To be 100 percent clear, I would NOT be willing to include Noah Hanifin or any other roster Hurricanes defenseman in a deal for Zetterberg which I consider to be more of a short-term play than MacKinnon.
First and foremost in considering Zetterberg is to note that he is still a very good hockey player. This is not the story of adding veteran leadership far into the downside of a career. Zetterberg put up a BIG 68 points in 82 games on a 2016-17 Red Wings team that was not all that good. He averaged 19:43 of ice time in his usual roles. In short, the 2016-17 version of Henrik Zetterberg was still every bit of a C1 or C2 with no signs that was scheduled to change soon.
If acquired, Zetterberg slots right into a top 6 center slot on a scoring line and also brings another great veteran and leader. I would count on that for two years (basically the time period where Francis has money invested). Those two years push for the playoffs now and potentially build a bridge to filling Zetterberg’s slot with youth which could be Aho, Lindholm or Teravainen moving back to center or possibly even someone else emerging by then.
There are many other options that also have merit especially when cost is factored into the equation, but mostly putting those complexities aside and just picking great options, those are my first two (with Zetterberg partly being because of at least the potential to obtain him for futures and not a roster defenseman).
What say you Canes fans?
Who are your top one or two options if you can dream big but at least somewhat within reason (no McDavid :-))?
Am I wrong to say that Nathan MacKinnon is the forward equivalent of what we hope Noah Hanifin will become? Or do you think Hanifin has significant upside over MacKinnon?
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Ok, top 2F…Drouin Radulov. Of course 3 Colorado F, 3 TB F, and 3
NYR F…Kreider,Miller, and Stepan (even Hayes), AND A FINAL BONUS. …….TAVARES
Both scenarios work for me. Drouin (sp) would be my next pick.
Having said that, I would assume Francis is also looking at adding some size to the squad. Size with speed and skill – again stating the obvious regarding the best of all worlds. You can’t help but see the need for players who can bang and be banged when watching the Preds/Penguins beat the crap out of each other in the finals. The playoffs seem to have become an extension of the MMA….another topic for another day.
Matt, I don’t think center is as big a need as you and many of the other commenters do. CBTSblog has some analytic insight that makes the case again that Jordan Staal is doing just fine as 1C. As you mention, Aho should eventually find his way back to center–where I am pretty confident he will be as good as if not slightly better than MacKinnon.
I need to preface my remarks by saying that outside of the Canes, I don’t watch a ton of hockey. So my opinions are based solely on statistics and a few articles. I think MacKinnon is in the middle of the second tier of centers just for those centers 21 and younger. I would say the top tier is pretty clearly McDavid, Matthews, and Eichel. A case could be made for Draisaitl, but as I have said before I think 16-17 might be his ceiling. So I would actually have a tweener tier between the very top and the rest–Draisaitl, Marner, and Barkov. Then MacKinnon slots with the likes of Horvat, Larkin, Reinhart, and Wennberg (maybe even Brayden Point).
If the age is up to 24 or so, then Monahan and Rakell are higher on the list than MacKinnon. This is not to say he isn’t very good, just some perspective. I think trading Hanifin for MacKinnon or Reinhart (as his name is also involved in rumors) makes some sense. But againstthegrain has made me think twice about what Hanifin is worth over the next 8-10 years. To answer your second question, I think Hanifin is at least slightly ahead of MacKinnon in terms of long-term upside.
Because I am not as convinced for the need for a center and think any trade involving Hanifin would need to include a player around the same age with nearly as much upside, I can think of one player: Ehlers (though either Marner or Nylander are similar if truly available).
Other than that, I really like Plan B. There was a discussion here several weeks ago about how several Canes’ players have significant upside (Aho, Lindholm, Teravainen) to become 60 point contributors. There are several prospects that should be able to contribute 40 or so points two or three years down the road. So while getting more scoring for a 17-18 playoff push is imperative, it works fine if that scoring only lasts 2 or 3 seasons.
CT, my concept of the importance of a high quality CENTER, IS…
Scoring is what the Canes DON’T HAVE ENOUGH OF…and Centers tend to either score, or setup others, so improving our centers SHOULD HELP…hopefully…??
Let me preface the order of my selections by saying what my parameters are.
1. I’m not giving up one of our top 4 defensemen for a forward unless the forward is a CENTER in the Crosby, McDavid, etc. class of players. None of the players mentioned by you Matt or any of the other contributors is in that class.
2. I’m looking for a 1st line scoring center or wing who I can get either as a free agent or by trading prospects, draft picks and/or a third or 4th line player (not including Jordan Staal if you consider him in that category).
3. In making my suggestions the deal has to be IMO in the realm of possibility. For example, Crosby or McDavid would be fine with me, but I don’t consider players of that ilk to be in the realm of possibility for the Canes to obtain.
Considering those parameters both Zetterberg and MacKinnon would be acceptable. I also think such a deal is in the realm of possibility. puckgod has mentioned Kreider (NYR), Drouin (TB), and Johnson (TB). All of these would be acceptable additions IMO and are in the realm of possibility (in my world). ctcaniac points out several arguments and kind of reasons through things from different angles that highlight the complex thinking required to make a sound decision. He seems to favor Plan B (Zetterberg) which as I have said would be acceptable to me. He is not as enamored with MacKinnon as much as I am, but I think that is because he doesn’t think he’s worth a Hanifin. If that is the case, I agree with him (see my parameters above). He mentions several other players most of whom, given my parameters would be good additions (Monahan, Rakell, etc.). I also agree with him that Monahan is probably a tad better than MacKinnon. I never considered Monahan for that reason. I feel getting him is not in the realm of possibility.
I like the Zetterberg idea but lump it into the “crazy” pile.
Here’s my crazy idea. MIN has expansion draft issues and no 1st or 2nd pick this year. I’d go after Eric Stahl. He has 2-yrs left on a very reasonable deal. He has a NMC and MIN doesn’t really want to protect him. He’s a proven C1 and at age 32 the perfect “bridge” player. He wouldn’t want to be or need to be Captain. If he weren’t our former captain with all that drama with how things ended in CAR, we’d be all over a player lime him. And I’d bet we could get him for futures/prospects. Personally, I would love to see him come back now that he’s found his game again and we’re a much better team … now everyone pound on me.
On a less controversial subject, not sure on Hanafin’s ceiling. Could go either way. Thinking a lot about the “potential” comment from yesterday.
I don’t know if pounding is the term to use but I can’t imagine being in Staal’s shoes and even considering coming back to a place where I was basically run out of town after giving my heart and soul for ten years. Talk about pressure and scrutiny for all involved if he came back to Raleigh. You’re absolutely right though, if it weren’t him and his history he would be one of the preferred candidates. I think the Zetterberg scenario is perfect from the Canes standpoint. Still (very) productive, makes everyone around him better, is a leader, old but not too old and has a good contract scenario to pick up. Unfortunately he’ll want to go to one of the top 6-8 teams with a realistic chance at a Cup and the Canes are a few years away from that scenario.
Interesting is that Zetterberg unlike most elite players does not have any kind of no-trade clause. Because of his time and role in Detroit, it’s unclear whether they would still consult him and try to do him right, but they do not have to. I guess the retaliation if Zetterberg wasn’t happy with how it was handled could be that he plays the $7M year and then retires which I believe would see Detroit hit with 3 years of reasonably sizable cap hits from a recapture penalty. But then, he might be slated to retire in two years anyway.
I’m not touching the Eric Staal thing. 🙂
If you look at #12’s numbers the last few years in CAR they look a lot like McKinnon’s or Duchene’s recent numbers. Maybe it was simply a good player playing on a bad team. Isn’t that what we were? And didn’t we blame him like COL is blaming their best players? If I learned anything this year it’s that Eric Staal is still a way better hockey player than he showed the last two years in CAR. I think most people realize that now.
Yes, it was a tough way to end it but everyone saw it coming, even Eric, and I have to believe even he knew it was the best thing. I think most fans would NOT be hard on him. I think most fans would be thrilled to have him back. The separation was good for him, for the team, and for the fanbase.
Like I said, call me crazy … I’m talking myself into loving this idea.
I think your comments about Eric Staal are good. He certainly would meet the definition of what I consider to be our need for a 1st line center who can score. I sure would welcome his return. To be successful he would have to be a big man and the fans would have to give him some slack. I’m pretty sure he could live up to the big man part, not so sure about the fans giving him some room to show what he can do for the team.
This fan would give him a huge amount of slack. And I don’t think he would have to be a Big Man. He’d just have to be the player he’s been; it would now show better on a more competitive team.
OK .. I’m done now. I’d be surprised if RF goes there. But it’s fun to speculate.
6.5 million per year for a guy (MacKinnon) that scored 16 goals last year seems tough to justify. Maybe if they’d retain 1.5-2 million in salary?
Hey JMccutch…Thanks for chiming in! I think your concern about what to expect for MacKinnon at $6.5M is justified, but I lean optimistic on him.
I just think it is difficult to evaluate MacKinnon (or anyone for that matter) based on 2016-17 in Colorado. The team was just so absolutely horrible pretty much from wire to wire.
Relatively speaking at least, MacKinnon had a good season. Despite leading forwards in ice time, he was significantly less underwater plus/minus-wise compared to the other top forwards. His 16 goals and 53 points were modest but were 12 more than anyone else.
I view him as having a high floor of 50-55 points even in the worst of situations (which Colorado truly was last year), an expected 60-65 points range and a ceiling higher than that.
Great players who are playing great on winning teams are near impossible to obtain, so for Francis it is about finding a player who is better than his recent play/stats would indicate, and I think MacKinnon is exactly that. That said, I think concern over his $6.5M for 16 goals is justified too until MacKinnon proves that 2016-17 was just a bad team anomaly.
Reading your last three paragraphs, Matt, who else could you have been describing? (Hint: see above)
Welcome, jmccutch. All comments welcome.
Matt, I actually wonder if MacKinnon’s rookie season was the anomaly. His numbers the past three years (and not just last year’s stinkiness) were a hard fall from his rookie season. Were his linemates elevating his stat line that first year?
I am going to ask a more rhetorical question, if those three Avs’ forward are so good then why was the team so bad? Were they unable to elevate their linemates’ games – or perhaps their linemates were so bad that they were indeed elevated from what would have been abysmal levels by these 3 “great” Avalanche forwards.
Maybe what the Avs need are better secondary players, and getting rid of one of their top three forwards isn’t the right path. The Oilers got away trading one of their top forwards to NJ for a D-man (the Avs’s stated target) because they were so deep at forward, plus they have this McDavid kid. 🙂 I think that may explain why Sakic is asking for so much. He knows he is losing a huge chunk of his offense and there is no one coming up from the prospect list.
Call me very skeptical on any of those three. And if Sakic wanted a ticket to the moon for Duchene, how much will he want for MacKinnon?
Per jmccutch’s valid comment on MacKinnon, why would someone want to pay Duchene $6M for his 41 points last season, and his offensive numbers have been in major decline the past 3 seasons as well. I won’t even talk about Landeskog who ultimately had an embarrassing season last year.
Again just call me very skeptical about any of the 3 Av forwards when it comes to providing value for the price we would have pay to get them and the salary we would be paying them afterwards.
Valid question. Their goaltending was atrocious. We know from experience what that can do. And there were other problems too. But your basic point that the team’s leaders Landeskog, Duchene and MacKinnon should not be exempt from scrutiny is a good one.
Just to answer the question you ask in your second paragraph about why Colorado so bad if top three forwards were supposedly so good. Anyone who watched or followed the Avalanche last year would tell you why. The Av’s had pitiful goaltending to start with. Their defensemen all underperformed miserably. The team had no depth to speak of. Thus, their top three (Duchene, MacKinnon, and Landeskog) just were not enough to overcome the lack of any defense. That the defense and goalie deficiencies are so glaring is the only reason there would be any reason for Colorado to even consider trading one of their top three forwards. It is also why, while somewhat a longshot, that maybe the Canes can pry one of them loose for some of our developing defensive talent without touching our core top four. This just offered as my view of the situation with Colorado. If we could get one of these players, I would want it to be MacKinnon. The reason for this is that he scores at least as well as the other two, he plays better defense than Duchene and at least as good as Landeskog, and he is a physical force on the ice. He’s a tough version of Jordan Staal with more offensive upside. Your questioning why about the AV’s forwards is a legitimate question. The above is just my answer to your question. Am I right? Well, let’s just say the chances of that according to my hockey friends would be “don’t bet too much money on it.” I’ve had to eat humble pie so much my weight soared to 260 pounds during last season.
All this being said, many (ctcaniac, ironcaniac, puckgod, teninumee, dmilleravid, and others) have made suggestions that we look elsewhere to improve our scoring and have mentioned several good prospects IMO. Zetterberg, Drouin, Johnson, Rackell, etc. are amongst them and IMO all of them would help the Canes. They all have presented excellent reasons why they have their particular preferences. For that reason I find it hard to dismiss much, if any, of their ideas.
All the comments about MacKinnon are fascinating. Because after my early morning post I looked more carefully at the numbers and thought I was too critical. MacKinnon is statistically better than most of the players I grouped him with. That being said, I agree that his first year may well be his best–as I have posited that Draisaitl may never exceed 16-17.
The main gist of the conversation is that most of us (certainly my current position) think trading a D only makes sense if the return is a young player with an ceiling equal to Hanifin or whomever is moved.
The next three weeks are going to be a thrill ride–I look forward to all the C&Cers interpretations of whether we on going up or down!