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The very first article of this long meandering series started way back on May 31 where it logically should have – identifying priorities.
At the time, I would have guesstimated the odds of Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis adding what I defined as a “top 6 scoring forward capable of (IMPORTANT) driving offense not just being a complementary player” at something like 60-65 percent. Francis did not use exactly the same terms I did, but he was in the same ballpark with his comments shortly after the conclusion of the 2016-17 season.Â
For me, the 60-65 percent positive represented Francis’ desire to upgrade at forward and willingness to spend at least from his stockpile of draft picks to do so. The 35-40 percent negative represented the fact that top 6 forwards are difficult and expensive to obtain and also the fact that Francis’ thoughts on what exactly he needed could have differed from mine.
Justin Williams
Interestingly, Francis’ exact words were in the post-season press conference were, “If we can get another player that gets us 20 goals up front, that’s something we’re going to explore because it’s a need for us.” On the surface, Justin Williams (who scored 24 goals in 2016-17) obviously qualifies, and based on that (but not knowing Francis’ detailed intentions and plan), Francis might actually have accomplished exactly what he set out to do when he added Justin Williams.
I have written about the Justin Williams’ acquisition in more detail already first providing ‘initial thoughts’ and then doing a ‘deeper dive’ that looked more at how/where he might fit in the Hurricanes’ lineup.
Without revisiting all of the details, here is where I land in the end with the acquisition of Justin Williams:
* Â He is an upgrade to the Hurricanes top 9 forwards and also an upgrade scoring-wise. If I slotted the team’s forwards before his acquisition, my math would have him bumping someone like Brock McGinn, Phil Di Giuseppe or Derek Ryan out of the top 9. He is a scoring upgrade to any of those players especially the 2016-17 version of McGinn or Di Giuseppe.
* Â The leadership addition (wrote about that and the “C” in Monday’s Daily Cup of Joe) is significant and valuable.
* Â But in terms of my priorities and needs assessment, Williams does not meet my requirements. I view him as a tremendous version of the complementary player, not a pure catalyst who drives a scoring line.
* Â Again, it is important to note that though Francis did not address my specific requirement, he might well have addressed his own which may have been different.
* Â In addition, there is more than one way to skin the cat. Even if I am correct that the Hurricanes lineup really needs one more high-end offensive catalyst and Williams is not exactly that, this does not automatically spell doom. There are various recipes and combinations that can yield NHL playoff teams.
Might Francis do more?
With the signing of Justin Williams to a two-year contract at $4.5 million annually, Francis spent a big chunk of whatever he has for budget for his 2017-18 roster. This does not mean another move is impossible, but with some budget spent, with seemingly no movement on the trade front signifying that at least so far the ask is too high and with the free agent list significantly depleted, my back of the envelope math would peg the probability of another significant deal for a forward at something like 15-20 percent.
I think that number captures the fact that Francis is still opportunistically shopping for the right player at the right price. That number also accounts for the fact that Francis is very much okay with going into training camp with the forward group that he has now if no bargains or at least fair deals for top-tier forwards emerge.
But it is nearly mid-July and the volume of hockey news is hitting its annual decline, so for the sake of contemplation and also with the aim of leaving no stone unturned in building a 2017-18 playoff team, today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a look at what’s left in terms of options to upgrade the forward position.
Shopping what’s left of the free agents at forward with an eye for scoring
The free agent pool is obviously pretty depleted at this point, but there are still a few big or at least known names left.
Jaromir Jagr
He is easily the ‘shiniest’ thing left on the market. Jagr could easily make most NHL teams better, and he even has ties to Ron Francis. But I just do not see it happening. My mind changes (basically I become more flexible) if Jagr is willing to take a discounted one-year deal at which point, I skip looking the gift horse in the mouth and start working on how to adjust given the late addition.
But for a real salary, especially on a deal formore than one year, I am not sure he is a great fit. The Hurricanes are three deep at right wing with Elias Lindholm, Justin Williams and Lee Stempniak, and unless Lindholm moves to center, none of those players are really the flexible kind who could just hop to the other wing (nor is Jagr). If the Hurricanes do have room in the top 9, I think it is at center or left wing. And despite the fact that Jagr continues to be productive well into his forties, I am not sure the 2017-18 version of him fits what Peters wants to do offensively which is push pace.
At this point anything is possible, but at least at a fair price, I do not see Francis making a sizable investment in Jagr.
Thomas Vanek
He equaled Justin Williams 2016-17 point total with 13 fewer games. Based on that, Vanek could seemingly be ‘instant offense’ on the cheap. And the Hurricanes do need more offense/scoring. But I view him as being a lesser version of Jagr. Even more so than Jagr, the question with Vanek could be whether he can match NHL pace on the wing in Peters’ system. If not, he quickly becomes instant offense that fits nicely on the power play but maybe not so well anywhere else.
The rest
Past Jagr and Vanek and with an eye for scoring, I really do not see anything that interests me at the forward position in the remaining free agent pool.
I am not high on Drew Stafford or Brian Gionta. I still like Viktor Stalberg, but that would be for a depth/fourth-line role and the Hurricanes are past full in terms of depth forwards already.
In the end, for a Jussi Jokinen type deal (one year for $1.5 million-ish), multiple players could become interesting depth additions. But at anything close to expected fair value or especially if for more than one year, I do not see the remaining options as good fits.
The still maybe, possibly, allegedly available list of high-end trade targets
This group of players already received its fair share of attention, so I will not go into detail again except to say that though situations may have changed slightly, all of Matt Duchene, Alex Galchenyuk and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are still with their original teams.
I think the trade of Jordan Eberle combined with workable math for Connor McDavid makes Nugent-Hopkins less likely to be dealt this summer. Also, the departure of Alexander Radulov from Montreal creates a slot and also salary budget such that Galchenyuk is must less certain to depart Montreal. Duchene and the Avs are still interesting. General Manager Joe Sakic has really painted himself in a corner, and it will be interesting to see if he hits desperation mode to get out of it.
I think the situation with these players mostly spends the rest of the summer right where I had it on July 3, two days after free agency started. I think Francis is still interested and willing to offer whatever he offered back in early June, but that (likely minus the top 4 defenseman that everyone seems to want) was not good enough then and only becomes relevant if someone significantly decreases his demands.
A new (mini) wave of trade possibilities
While most have been focused intently on the long-available high-end trade targets at forward and the free agent frenzy, a couple new possibilities have emerged.
Ryan Spooner – Boston Bruins
Ryan Spooner’s level of play and situation could be termed Galchenyuk-lite. While it is important to first say that Spooner does NOT possess the draft pedigree or the ceiling of Galchenyuk, his situation is maybe a bit similar. Spooner has been a fairly productive offensive player for a few years now. He had 49 points in 80 games in 2015-16 and 39 points in 78 games in 2016-17. Yet, like Galchenyuk he has had some ups and downs and has yet to carve out a regular role slotting up and down the lineup and at left wing and center. His scoring numbers are not eye-popping numbers obviously, but if considered more of a median or floor number, they are not bad for an offensively gifted playmaker who is only 25 years old. And the key word there is playmaker. His all-around game is ‘meh’, but his strength is exactly the kind of chance generation that the Hurricanes need. In addition, Spooner is a very good power play setup man. His 15 power play assists in 2016-17 rank him tied for 30th in the entire NHL.
With Peters seemingly on the path to building not one but two defensively leaning lines that he can use for match ups, can the lineup now hold a playmaking center who is maybe not the greatest defensively but can be used opportunistically and shielded from dangerous match ups? That is about where a player like Spooner could fit in addition to being a positive addition to the power play.
Tyler Bozak
Lost in the hubbub of the kids taking over and tearing it up offensively in Toronto are carry overs like Tyler Bozak (and to some degree Nazem Kadri) whose name is popping up in the trade rumblings of late. Toronto and Carolina are not a great trade match. The Maple Leafs want a defenseman, and the Hurricanes trade options in that regard are either too much or too little for Bozak.
But if Toronto changed course and was willing to accept some combination of futures and depth players instead possibly as part of a three-way trade that nets them a defenseman, Bozak could be interesting. He seems likely to depart next summer when his contract expires to free salary cap space, so just maybe Toronto moves early.
Bozak is 31 years old and with only one year (at $4 million) remaining on his current contract, so he does not have nearly the luster of the younger players mentioned above, but in terms of winning in 2017-18, I think he could actually be a good fit if the trade cost looks closer to a rental than a marquee player.
Prorated for games played, Bozak has been a consistent 50-55-point scorer in recent years. Along the way, he has proven he can reach this level in a variety of scenarios. He did on bad Leafs teams playing on a top scoring line. He did it on a better Leafs team in a secondary scoring role. And he has also seen his line mates shift regularly from Kessel to kids.
No doubt, Tyler Bozak is from the ho-hum/not tremendously exciting category, but could he be a ‘good enough’ playmaking center for the 2017-18 season at reasonable cost and short-term commitment?
What say you Caniacs?
Who likes the Jaromir Jagr (or maybe even Thomas Vanek) possibility way more than I do?
Could Francis shop a tier lower on the trade market and add a capable even if not exciting playmaking center who is maybe used opportunistically on the power play and also with an eye for match ups?
In addition to Spooner and Bozak, who else might be available from a second tier of scoring center options?
Go Canes!
1. Forget Jagr…way too old and slow. Not a fit for our system. Vanek would be okay with me, but really doesn’t seem to add enough to make much of a difference. His signing would just add a few goals (6-8) while pushing one of our already signed wings off the roster.
2. I believe RF is always looking to add scoring. The reality this offseason has been that no deals have occurred yet involving a scoring first line center. I believe, based upon his comments in the press and on web sites, he is currently confident one of the young prospect forwards is going to step up and add some scoring.
3. Forget Spooner IMO. 39 or 40 points we can probably get out of a good young rookie prospect or from a player currently signed on our roster. Bozak to be effective must be surrounded by excellent forwards to be productive. When in this environment they bring his level of play up. Much like Jusi Jokinen who was an excellent forward when on a line with top notch talent, but who was mediocre if not playing with top notch forwards.
Matt, I really take exception to your evaluation of the addition of Justin Williams. You say he is a tremendous version of the complementary player, not a catalyst who drives a scoring line. Justin Williams is a goal scorer, a finisher that plays a 200 foot game consistently game to game. He is not a first line playmaking scoring center true. He is a first line scoring forward which is a more important trait if I had to pick between adding a playmaker OR a scorer. We’ve had enough playmakers. What we have lacked more is scoring finishers.
Also, you take the tack that Williams signing somehow now has precluded or lessened the ABILITY of RF making a big move to get a first line scoring-playmaking center. I don’t believe that in the least. RF himself has stated PK has given him the okay to spend whatever is necessary in RF’s opinion to improve this team. To me it’s old stereotype thinking to continue to blame lack of moves is due to lack of money. I have no doubt in my mind that IF that first line scoring-playmaking center is out there and available in a trade, that any failure by RF to acquire such a player will be due to the other assets other than cash that will have to be given up to make such a deal. Take the Duchene situation for example. why hasn’t he moved? The evidence indicates it’s because Sakic wants too much in the way of player/prospect assets in return. It’s not because of any cash to be given up or because of the amount of Duchene’s salary to be taken on. I believe the implication being taken that in the Canes case money is an impediment more so than it would be with any other team tends to degrade our franchise to a level of smalltime operation. In the past that may or may not have been true and maybe for good reason. we had a different GM then who might have taken the cheap skate route or plan (or lack of a plan) to team development for whatever reason. I don’t believe for a minute that RF would continue as GM if he had restrictions placed upon him that would preclude him carrying out RF’s PLAN FOR BUILDING A WINNER.
RR, thx for burning the midnight oil: I agree completely, especially the part about finishers.
I think RF is going to continue to pursue upgrading this team this summer, but without a materially better option available in a reasonable trade, and I don’t think Spooner is a materially better option than, say, Derek Ryan, I think RF is fine, and I’m fine, taking this team into camp.
One more thing about the money/budget comments: maybe there is a bit more money to spend, maybe there isn’t. Hard to tell, and we may never know. It does seem like there has been more room to maneuver for RF.
The first few years of the RF regime have been mostly about building the prospect pool, which doesn’t require money, just the resolve to rebuild and make difficult trades for futures. We are only now at the point in the process, this Summer, where spending money would seem to make a real difference in the standings. I think that’s why we’re hearing talk about money from RF: in the past, it didn’t really matter whether we spent more because we were still early in the rebuilding, now it matters much more.
Having said that, it sure seems that our situation in 1-2 years will not look all that dissimilar to EDM’s situation looks today – up against the Cap. Between now and then, we’ll have to re-sign Skinner, Aho, Lindholm, TT, Pesce, Slavin, and Hanafin (assuming we’ll want to). The good news is that our play can improve dramatically over two years (like EDM has) and we may get closer to being a legitimate Cup Contender; the bad news is that we’re going to have trouble to afford to keep the core of the team together past ’19-20 and that window with this group may not be open very long. Difficult decisions lie ahead, which complicate adding even a player like Duchene, who would also need to be re-signed. That pressure is even more pronounced when we are not a Cap team, which, RR, we are not. Maybe that changes as he wins pile up, attendance increases, and finances improve. The jury is still out on both.
(Matt, sorry if this comment is not completely relevant to today’s post, but since RR got it going …)
RedRyder, I agree. The players mentioned above are not true upgrades. We also don’t know exactly what the ‘Canes budget is. It’s easy to speculate the budget being the same based on prior years spending just above the floor. The fact GMRF mentioned he has the green light should indicate a much greater move can be had IF the right deal comes about. I believe the right deal (meaning not losing a top 4D) has just not presented itself. And if said deal includes a top 4D, then the gaining player needs to be that 1C type such as MacKinnon. Those deals just are not happening right now.
However, important to keep in mind there are still ways to improve the center position without losing top 4D. We could still end up with Duchene, but Sakic needs to come back to reality. More reasonably a player like Bozak or JVR “could” cost less and fill a short-term need similar to Duchene. A package of 2nd + 4th + McKeown may get the lesser deals done. This type of move makes us a top 6 team in the East v. wild card.
I am fine with entering the season with the team we presently have. It is true that we did not get that stud 1C, but I do think RF had the green light but the costs associated with that trade meant giving up too much.
I have been looking over the options every day for further additions. I do think that Thomas Vanek is the only UFA left that could help, and he is a left wing. We are fine on the right. As far as trades, what I have been seeing is that the Leafs are in cap trouble. I could see them trading JVR or Bozak. Either would help but at what cost? Edmonton is not in cap trouble until next year, so nothing there. I see so many articles where writers just throw out what is good for their team and the team should do this or that (not you Matt). What is always missing is what the other team needs. Its like the Jordan Staal trade to Pittsburg. How great it would work out for Pitsburgh and how he would be a better fit then Duchene. How ridiculous, the writer never mentioned what the canes would get in return or how it would affect the Canes. One way vision. In the real world the other team has needs also. The reason we did not trade for the stud 1C is because of the players it would have cost us. I am sure RF tried but you can only make a trade when it works for both teams (or somebody else is really stupid, and they are not). A Toronto trade could happen, but because they are in cap trouble. There are other teams who have cap space too, so not a high probability we would be in position to grab JVR or Bozak. IMO the probability is pretty high that we are done with player movement, but it is still possible. I agree with what RR and Dmiller say above. If a deal does come along I am sure RF will be looking.
I also wish to welcome stormwarning. I did not have anything to add to the great conversations on who is captain, so I will give the welcome here.
Also agree and I’m fine with the team as we have it. Don’t think any of the players out there now would be worth the cost to break up our D. Upgraded D, goalie, Williams and more mature forwards, we should be in the playoffs. If we don’t make it, then we have the conversation of who did not perform up to their potential (coaches included at that point).
On the money thing, agree that the thought money is not available is an “old” thought. PK paid for Semin. PK paid for Williams for 2 years. RF has said he has a green light. So IMHO, the money is there. The hold up is because there has not been a situation worth the cost in players lost or added salary that would cause problems down the road.
Also don’t think Williams needs to be the Captain to be a voice in the room. Let the guys prove they are worthy of it.
And, thanks to Matt and all who post here as to giving us something to read during the dark, dull days of summer with no hockey!!!!
I wholeheartedly agree with ptblespaul’s comment in his last paragraph. Matt has the hardest job. He has to put the topic and his feelings about the topic out there without knowing what the reaction will be. He is a master at presenting excellent topics for discussion and always presents a good argument for his views. As far as I’m concerned this is by far the best sports discussion type site on the internet and it’s not even close. It’s hard to disagree with Matt because of all of the above. When I do (or virtually in every case) Just remember my disclaimer when reading my posts. I have a margin for error of plus or minus infinity, i.e’; you are not dealing with a Nostradamus, Einstein, Marconi, or Newton type mind over here.
Hope no one ever feels like they need to worry about disagreeing with me. I pride myself on being passionate and am not afraid to be opinionated, but I also recognize that most things have different opinions that are equally valid.
As long as people are respectful (not just toward me but toward everyone), I think we can have a great discussion and consider different viewpoints. Bigger than hockey, I think our world needs more of that.
Plus since we have debates nearly every day, whoever disagrees vehemently today will end up on the same side of a debate within a few days anyway. 🙂
First, let me chime in my agreement on the value of this site. The topics and tone of the site are the perfect mix for me. Contributors are always thoughtful, passionate and, most importantly, respectful. Its by far the best Canes site out there.
I also am comfortable going to camp with our team. I’ve stated that I believe we are a playoff team as constructed. If RF can make a deal to improve the team, he will.
Don’t think Spooner or Jagr improve the team. Spooner may be a better playmaker on the margin, but his defensive liabilities offset that improvement. Jagr doesn’t fit BP’s system. Bozak could help, but only if the deal is right. Vanek doesn’t fit our needs.
Not sure if we will be able to pull off the big deal for the 1C we need. Continue that will happen a couple of years from now if/when Bean develops. At that point we will be able to move a top 4 D for the 1 or 2C we need. We hopefully will have playoff experience by then and be ready to be Cup contenders with the addition.
At this point I am just an echo. Don’t like Jagr, Vanek, or “the rest” enough to think the cost would be worth it. Also totally agree that the team today is good enough from my point of view. As far as a playmaker, I think one of Lindholm or Teravainen will become a catalyst this season. Also, Ryan is solid between Skinner and Stempniak.
fabdou is correct that Bean (and some of the other prospects’) development will give GMRF great options both on the ice as in the trade market.
I believe JVR is a possible trade candidate.
He is wing, center combo that we loves (TT, Skins, Lindholm, Ryan).
He is a big body goal scorer that is still younger.
Toronto wont re-sign him because of their big three young wingers that will need reupping soon.
The question is the same as Bozak, are we a viable trade partners? We aren’t letting go of one our RHDs that Toronto covets. We could do McKeown and a solid winger prospect. If Toronto would be willing to take a Vegas defender then we could swing a 3 team trade. LV has a bevy of LHD though.
Also the thought of
Skins-JVR-Lindholm
Aho-Staal-Williams
TT-Rask-Stempniak
That should be a 100 point front 9