Yesterday, I wrote a wilder version of what the Carolina Hurricanes expansion draft could entail if Ron Francis made a move to exploit a couple interesting market inefficiencies surrounding the expansion draft. The Monday Coffee Shop also has polls and some interesting comments on the expansion draft by readers.
And if you are catching up and might have missed a few articles, you can find a list of all of the articles (with links) for Francis’ off-season work in our “2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes Roster Building Central.”
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks at the basics and a more vanilla version of the Carolina Hurricanes expansion draft week. You can find the schedule and other details for the expansion draft and other key off-season dates HERE. Leading up to Saturday, here are my thoughts on the basics of the expansion draft from a Carolina Hurricanes’ angle.
Carolina Hurricanes players exposed for the expansion draft
I am sticking to my guns from my article back on March 29. Despite the fact that most of the broader NHL media continue to peg Lee Stempniak as the Hurricanes player to be exposed and selected by Las Vegas, I continue to believe that Ron Francis should and will do differently. I think Francis should and will decide to protect Lee Stempniak and would therefore need to expose one of younger depth forwards Brock McGinn or Phil Di Giuseppe (in addition to Joakim Nordstrom and a few other fringe AHL/NHL players). If I am right that Francis will protect Stempniak, I am not sure which direction he will go in terms of McGinn or Di Giuseppe. Personally, I just continue to think that Di Giuseppe is a better player than McGinn right now, and I do not see their potential ceilings as much different. That said, I do see pros and cons to each player and would not be surprised if Francis went the other direction.
The Hurricanes will also expose Eddie Lack and Cam Ward at the goalie position and Klas Dahlbeck (in addition to a few AHL players) on defense.
Which Hurricanes player does Las Vegas select?
I will be very surprised if the Hurricanes do not lose a forward in the expansion draft. With teams only able to protect three defenseman using the most common protection scheme, there are some very good fourth defensemen available who are better than Dahlbeck. And at goalie, there are 3-5 goalies who I would rate higher than Ward or Lack. So my projection says that the Hurricanes will lose either Di Giuseppe or McGinn.
But could Francis do a deal with Las Vegas to impact who they take?
While it is possible that Francis could impact who Las Vegas selects by offering a draft pick or prospect, I think this is unlikely.
Trying to resolve the goalie situation early
In an ideal world, I think Francis would like to coax Las Vegas into taking Lack to get the Hurricanes back down to two goalies. But at least in terms of making that happen in terms of the formal expansion draft, I do not think it makes any sense. With each team only able to protect one goalie, there will be a pretty good list of goalies available to Las Vegas. The Golden Knights can do better by selecting one of those goalies (let’s say Grubauer) and trading that for a good return. I do not think Francis would be willing to replace the value lost by not taking a player like Grubauer, Raanta or possibly Fleury.
Trying to protect Brock McGinn or Phil Di Giuseppe
Another possibility is paying something in the form of a draft pick to steer Las Vegas toward Dahlbeck instead of a young forward. The question here is how much Francis would be willing to pay to do so. I do not view either player as so critical that Francis will want to spend from the pile of futures that he needs to add a scoring forward this summer.
But I still think there is a decent chance that Eddie Lack lands in Las Vegas
Wait. But I just said that it did not make sense for either team for Francis to pay in futures to get Las Vegas to select Lack, right? Yes. Follow me here. The best thing Las Vegas can do at the goalie position is to select the three best goalies available and then collect value for at least two of them. Smartest would be to keep one of the three selected goalies, possibly the youngest one or the one with the least trade value. If Las Vegas does that, they will ultimately still need a backup goalie. Lack could actually be a good fit. I think Francis would be willing to pay something for Las Vegas to take Lack and the last year on his contract at $3 million. Lack’s contract is only one more year, so Las Vegas would not be taking on a long-term commitment. And Eddie Lack would be an absolutely wonderful player to add as an ambassador for a brand new team.
Deals I could see Francis doing with Las Vegas
After the expansion draft, I could see Francis trading Eddie Lack, a third-round pick and a lesser forward prospect (Canes are headed toward having too many in Charlotte) for an inexpensive and solid depth forward from Las Vegas.
Klas Dahlbeck or Ryan Murphy for a mid/late-round draft pick or as part of a bigger deal to gain a depth forward after the expansion draft. If I am correct that Francis will add a slightly higher-end defenseman to the mix at some point, Francis might also like to trade away Murphy or Dahlbeck to make room. Dahlbeck was signed primarily to serve as the experienced defenseman, so the Hurricanes did not have to expose Justin Faulk instead. And Murphy has yet to find his way. Both are on inexpensive contracts, so it is not impossible that Francis enters the season with both, but I think in an ideal world Francis would like to unload one and keep the other to hopefully fill the #7 slot.
What say you Canes fans?
Do we get expansion draft-related deals on Tuesday? How do you think it ends?
Go Canes!
I think either Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll see a few moves, and more on Thursday…Vegas should be really busy.
I think the Canes will be involved in one trade prior to the expansion draft–likely Wednesday or Thursday.
Your “after the expansion” deals with Vegas are intriguing. LV is required to pick more players at each position than they need—there should be a few depth forwards of interest. So trading Lack, a pick, and a “lesser” prospect helps everyone since LV could then shop one the goalies it acquires in the expansion. I am interested in who you think the Canes’ forward prospect might be. My own preference would be to see what we have in all the forwards who have yet to play professionally. Given that the organization probably wants to see if Saarela and Zykov can live up to flashes they showed last season, that narrows the lesser prospects to Poturalski, Tolchinsky, and Bishop.
Or should Smallman, and Lorentz fall into this category? I am interested in how Matt and others see this.
It does seem that the expansion draft creates new scenarios every day. I just read on The Hockey Writers that Hartnell will likely be moving on from Columbus. He could be a fall back option for Carolina. He just turned 35, it is reasonable to think he could have 15-20 goals and 45 points in him for another year or two. His contract decreases from 4.5M this year to 3M next, so the money is not outrageous. While not as appealing as Zetterberg or even Williams as a UFA, it might be worth considering if Columbus would make a trade for a single mid-round pick to avoid going the buyout rout.
In all honesty, it gets overwhelming with all the variations of risk/reward and cost that might be in play over the next week.
As others have said, it might make sense to trade one of our core D (especially if the staff thinks Bean is can’t miss) for a MacKinnon or Drouin. But it also seems sensible to get a veteran with proven scoring ability without giving up a Hanifin or Slavin. I think we are all fascinated to see which direction GMRF takes.
Hartnell wouldn’t be the worst option, but he ended up playing a number of games on the 4th line this past season which contributed to his decline in scoring. I see him as a 3rd liner at best given his lack of foot speed. He might work next to Staal and Aho, though. Best of all he’s only signed for 2 more years. But he has an NMC and it wasn’t waived to go to Vegas, so there’s always that.
ct, you are on top of it here. I read that Columbus was not asking him to waive his no trade clause. They also appear to want to move him. He brings some scoring and for sure some toughness we could use as well as all the attributes and advantages you have pointed out.
I like your proviso about RF thinking Bean and/or Fleury is at the point of being able to replace a top four defenseman (Hanifin) for MacKinnon or Drouin. (I know ironcaniac probably has a smile on his face after reading that last sentence from me.)
Great article Matt!
The more I think about this entire summer, the more I really feel for GMRF. Some people think he’s set up well, and in many ways he is. However in order to add that top end talent he’s probably going to need to overpay in futures, and I just don’t see him pulling the trigger on a deal like that.
However, speculating on today’s topic, I’ve come around to your line of thinking. Stempniak is too valuable as an all around middle six guy they can count on for some offense. They’ll expose one of the kids, I think McGinn.
My logic is that they have far too much near NHL ready depth that can be expected to fill a bottom 6 role within a year, and McGinn has the lowest ceiling. He plays a great game, the issue is he doesn’t have the body for the way he plays. I think he’ll spend a lot of time injured in the coming years. Even when healthy, he’s physical without being intimidating, and I don’t think he’s capable of more offense than we’ve already seen.
DGP on the other hand I think has another gear. While he is also bottom 6 depth, I think he has a bit more upside and is the guy I’d protect.
UNLESS there’s a big trade in th next few days. Then all bets are off, because who knows who we’ll lose from the roster in the trade.
My feeling remains that they will expose Stempniak. I won’t be surprised if they don’t but I think they view the guys 10 years younger as holding more long-term value. I also feel that McGinn and Di Giuseppe are almost the exact same type of player, except McGinn hasn’t had the concussions that PDG has had. McGinn was an accomplished scorer in both juniors and in the AHL. Di Giuseppe was highly touted and showed flashes of brilliance at U of M, but was generally felt to have not lived up to expectations. He did, however, turn it on in the AHL too. Those guys are 3rd/4th line tweeners and are the exact type of depth players we need. The 4th line in today’s NHL isn’t a 5 minute a night set of grinders. It’s a line that chips in on offense and often plays 10-11 minutes a night. The skill level continues to increase, so guys like PDG and McGinn fit well. Nobody in Charlotte now fits that role. The guys coming in this year are all still too raw and putting Zykov or Saarela on the 4th line is a waste of potential talent.
Another scenario I was reading about this morning was Vegas taking on a player with a large contract, retaining half the salary to get closer to the cap floor and flipping the player to someone who then is only responsible for half the salary. The specific player they were talking about in this scenario was Dion Phaneu who would be a good pickup by someone who needs a veteran second pairing defenseman (not the Canes) at a cost of only half his salary. I understand the cap implications can be just as important as the effect on the team’s salaries but for some reason I never looked at this type of situation. I only considered Vegas taking on either large dead contracts (i.e. D. Clarkson) or taking on a few high priced veterans but keeping them on the roster to get to the floor. I must have been blind to the obvious and I’m assuming this option has been posted numerous times by many of you who understand the intricacies of the expansion draft. I can’t imagine being the Vegas GM and attempting to determine who all the possible scenarios could turn out if these types of deals are also being considered.
Again, the permutations around the next few weeks are endless. What fun it’s going to be.
I agree with againstthegrain and RF leaves McGinn unprotected for the reasons stated. I also agree with ctcaniac that we’ll do a deal this week, and with you, Matt, that it’ll probably be for a defenseman. The team has too many futures and RF is going to spend some of them over the next two weeks. It’s just hard to see how he doesn’t.
I do not see RF trading one of our core 4 on defense now or later this offseason. I think he’s going to build the team deliberately and incrementally as he’s done over the past few years. If there is a deal to be done for the difference-making Forward, it’ll come through the maneuvering around LV with futures and prospects and with assets he acquires through that process. (Caveat: if we get a Brodin or Dumba or another top-4 D through a trade, then maybe we do trade one of our core, but the net-net is not a step backwards.)
As for Eddie Lack, I’m not sure where he ends up, but if I’m LV, it would be hard to do better than winding up with a goaltending tandem of Fleury and Grubauer/Raanta.
In a few weeks, when the dust settles in early July, I’m quite sure the Canes will have improved dramatically RELATIVE TO OUR PEERS IN THE METRO. That’s the best news of all no matter who we wind up with.
My sense is that Lack is more likely to be moved this week than later. Otherwise he might be bought out or even just stashed in Charlotte as depth. There are at least 7 teams that need a goalie to expose for the draft. In the end, we can retain some of Lack’s salary and he’s a serviceable back-up…if he doesn’t get selected by Vegas. He could be part of a larger deal as well.
I see Ronnie making 2 or even 3 moves (beyond today’s signing of Andrew Miller down in Charlotte) prior to midnight on the 16th. I’m opposite of y’all when it comes to the defensemen. I believe that will be the easiest to either get in free agency or to trade for following the entry draft. I think he moves a goalie and trades for a forward. He might make a bigger deal that combines some of our needs, but now is when the discounts are going to be had. It will, however, be a game of chicken right up until the 23rd hour as teams are going to hold out for the best deal(s) possible.
Lastly, and I’ve said this elsewhere, don’t be so sure that Marc Andre-Fleury gets selected by Las Vegas. He’s got a high salary, has been declining, and isn’t signed long term. There are at least a dozen goalies that are going to be available for Vegas to select, plus a couple attractive free agents. And don’t be fooled, Vegas will ice a pretty competent defense in front of their net-minder. The issue for the Golden Knights is going to be scoring.
Every move seems extra meaningful due to all the possibilities. Did the Canes sign Miller now so that they can package a AHL veteran to give LV’s farm team some experience? It does fit with Matt’s prediction above. It also makes sense given all the youngsters the Canes will have in Charlotte. Who has good tea leaves?
I think the Canes re-signed Miller to add veteran presence to Charlotte’s ranks. There will be a ton more youngsters on that team than in recent years. A guy like Miller will help teach them about being a pro. Plus he provides a #14 or #15 depth option should injuries decimate the team.