Last week, I wrote a short ‘quick hitters’ article on the upcoming 2019 NHL trade deadline. Since then, the Hurricanes have made modest progress toward playing their way up and into playoff contention for March.
As such, I think my comments on the Canes as trade deadline buyers is even more relevant:
The Hurricanes as buyers
I would not be surprised to see the Hurricanes use the busy time to make a trade for a player with term on his contract who would be part of the team past the 2018-19 season, but I would not expect the Hurricanes to be players in the bidding wars for high-end rental players who are free agents at the end of the season. As I said above, maybe if the Hurricanes trade Ferland, the team spends modestly to back fill that slot.
Even if the Hurricanes are firmly in contention as the trade deadline approaches, I do not see the team as players in the high-end rental market. Maybe the Hurricanes spend a mid-round pick to add short-term help, but if the Hurricanes do a deal, I think it would more likely be a long-term addition.
In that vein, today’s Daily Cup of Joe goes big game hunting in looking for potential difference-makers who could be boost the Hurricanes fortunes via trade.
Identifying the needs
Again, looking longer term more so that pinpointing February of 2019, the team’s biggest need continues to be adding a higher-end scoring forward or two. More specifically, I think the hole in the lineup continues to be a second center capable of driving a scoring line behind Aho’s. Jordan Staal is still fine for his role as a shutdown center once he returns, and Lucas Wallmark has developed nicely at the NHL level this season. In 83 games combined (so just over a full NHL season), Staal and Wallmark have combined for only 11 goals and 30 points. That just is not enough offensively to slot into second and third line slots. And the wishful thinking that Martin Necas would hit the ground running at the NHL level in 2018-19 did not materialize. I am still high on Necas long-term, but exactly what the means for schedule is a complete wild card. If the team were to add a capable, scoring second line center then suddenly the slotting works. Staal is maybe still a bit light offensively, but in a third line role (offensively at least) with two scoring centers above him the group complements each other. And slotted as a fourth line center, Wallmark suddenly becomes a plus player in terms of scoring production relative to his role.
Though I do believe that a center would be the priority, a top 6 scoring wing could help too if the market is better and the cost less.
And again, I will be surprised if the Hurricanes pursue a high-end rental whose contract expires at the end of the 2018-19 season.
Carolina Hurricanes possible trade partners
If I was Don Waddell, I would be in regular contact with the teams that are flailing right now and in ‘anyone is available right now’ mode. Most often, those are the situations that put good players on the market for reasonable prices when teams aggressively seek a shakeup.
Right now, that list seems to include the Florida Panthers, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks and Ottawa Senators and possibly other teams like the Arizona Coyotes and Edmonton Oilers. So those teams would be starting points for trying to pry loose a good top 6 forward on a reasonable contract with term.
A great fit – Jonathan Huberdeau
A TSN article today suggested that Jonathan Huberdeau could be on the trading block as the Panthers look to reset and also make room for a Sergei Bobrovsky/Artemi Panarin push this summer. The angle of the article is Huberdeau going to Columbus to get Panarin and Bobrovsky at the deadline instead of waiting until summer, so it is not clear he would really be available to the Hurricanes. But if there was a player that I would pursue aggressively and maybe even overbid a bit for, Huberdeau would be that player. Huberdeau is only 25 years old but established as a top 6 forward in the NHL. He had 69 points in 82 games in 2017-18 and has 52 points in 54 games so far in 2018-19. His six goals and 16 assists on the power play would rank first on the Hurricanes and be a nice boost for a current weakness. Also significant is that he is under contract for four more years at $5.9 million per year salary cap hit. With his age and contract term, Huberdeau would be a long-term addition not a short-term fix. As an extra bonus, Huberdeau can slot at center or wing. That makes it possible for him to fill a second line center slot right now and possibly slide to wing if Necas develops and can fill that role down the road.
Who knows what the asking price would be, but because of his age, term and skill set I would bid aggressively in terms of spending futures to add another top half of the roster player for the long-term. Would Faulk plus medium-level futures get a deal done?
Thinking outside the box – Ryan Getzlaf
It is hard to imagine Getzlaf as anything but a Duck, but with the Ducks aging and flailing at the same time, there is talk that the franchise might try to start anew and that that could even include moving the captain. Getzlaf is 33 years old, so he does not have 5-8 year potential like Huberdeau, but if he could both help boost the Canes into the playoffs and build a bridge to the future at center, might he be worth it? His production is down a bit on a struggling Ducks team, but even the down version of Getzlaf is good for a 59-point pace if projected over 82 games. He had 61 points in only 56 games in 2017-18 and 73 points in 74 games in 2016-17, so it is not like he has hit a wall in terms of offensive production. His no-trade clause only allows him to screen out eight teams, so there would be a reasonable chance to obtain him if he is in fact on the trading block. And he is signed for two more years after this one. That might be about perfect to allow time for Martin Necas to develop and also to free up salary when Andrei Svechnikov and Dougie Hamilton’s contracts would be up. Thinking of Ryan Getzlaf in a Hurricanes uniform is definitely odd. And at 33 years old, he maybe is not what one thinks of in terms of long-term additions. But just maybe two plus years of Getzlaf can push the team up into the playoffs and build a bridge to the next generation.
The return would not be cheap to pry a long-time captain out of Anaheim, but if the Ducks are looking primarily for futures, the Hurricanes have volume there.
The calculated gamble – James Neal
There is no shortage of big free agent signings that have not worked out. Only 50ish games into his time with the Calgary Flames, James Neal looks to be one of those expensive, failed signings. Neal has mostly been slotted as a depth forward and has only five goals and 15 points in 53 games. At 31 years old, he has four more years remaining on his contract at $5.75 million per year. Given the reisk with his age and current level of play, there is no way the Hurricanes would take on the $5.75 million contract and trade significant assets to do so. But with the Flames winning more or less without Neal, one has to figure that the Flames would dump him for virtually nothing just to unload the contract. So if the Flames would be willing to eat the maximum half of Neal’s contract and take almost nothing in trade return just to unload him, could the risk be worth it. $3.4 million per year is a decent price if Neal rebounds even modestly scoring-wise. His production declined somewhat in 2017-18, but he still has an impressive run of ten straight years with 20 or more goals. To do such a deal would require a huge vote of confidence from the scouting staff, but with a fresh start, could Neal be a buy low opportunity to add a proven NHL goal scorer for very little in trade?
If the trade window is open – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
With an interim general manager now in place, the Oilers may officially be in a holding pattern until the off-season, but if the trade window is open, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could still be of interest. With two years at $6 million per year remaining on his current contract, Nugent-Hopkins could be a bit like Getzlaf as a boost for making the playoffs and a bridge to a next center. But at 25 years old, the potential is there that he meshes with the group and fills a key role longer-term. Nugent-Hopkins downshifted to a secondary role when Connor McDavid arrived, but his offensive production has been impressive of late. He finished with 48 points in 62 games for a 63-point 82-game pace and has 52 points in 55 games thus far in 2018-19. Best bet is that the Oilers will mostly sit tight until the offseason, but if in fact the trade window is still open, I would explore the possibility.
The Toronto thing – Kasperi Kapanen and William Nylander
The Maple Leafs ideally need to add a defenseman. The Maple Leafs have impending salary cap issues scheduled to arrive this off-season. And the worthwhile names being bandied around have included William Nylander and Kasperi Kapanen. The return to land either would no doubt include a defenseman. Nylander becomes especially interesting after July 1 when the Leafs pay the whopping $8.3 million signing bonus that he is due for the 2019-20 season. From that point forward, Nylander’s actual salary (not salary cap hit) would be a very reasonable $4.9 million. In addition, at least as of right now, the Maple Leafs are on record as saying he would not be trading. Another name making regular runs in the rumor mill right now is Kasperi Kapanen. Kapanen is a good hockey player with solid two-way play and incredible speed for today’s NHL. The question for me with Kapanen is what his ceiling is offensively. He is only 22 years old with room to grow, and his current 48-point pace without power play ice time is actually pretty pretty impressive, but I still question if his ceiling is more than that of a great depth player.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Are there any other names that you would add to my ‘big game hunting’ list above?
2) Which, if any, of the players that I listed would you target if available? Do you suspect there is a viable deal to be had for any of them?
3) This article covers only players with term, but are there any impending UFA rentals that you would consider to try to push up into the 2019 playoffs?
Go Canes!
The two best center trades this year, Max Domi to Mtl and Ryan Strome to Chicago are trades I would’ve loved to see for the Canes.
I would’ve been mollified with the skinner trade if Buf gave up Sam Reinhard, he was a dog house player last year, but sadly he’s come around big time for Buf.
I’ve mentioned Tylor Toffoli from the Kings as a similar sition guy, a bit older, signed to an AAV of 4.6 mill through 2020, but the Kings blogger on Hockeybuzz thinks he is much better than his underlying stats (11G 15A) this season.
I think the time and money make for a good fit if the Kings are willing to trade.
There’s Puljajarvi in Edm, though he is a winger, I think, and he has vastly under performed based on high expectations, but the Oilers have a way to make good players look bad so he could be a diamond in the rough type guy who perhaps needs some of his countrymen.
This is a great run down of possible big fish. And 2C is without question the position of need (Wallmark, as solid as he’s been, is a weakness at the 2C. He’s got 6 goals and the lowest shooting % of any forward).
I think you’re right with Huberdeau, he’s likely only available for Panarin and some other massive haul. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins still makes a lot of sense for a reasonable trade, but they’ll definitely wait on a new GM. Neal worries me a bit, but buying low (see Nino) might be the kind of deal Dundon will want. Getzlaf just seems out of Canes price range.
One of Kasperi Kapanen or William Nylander make a lot of sense but it just seems incredibly unlikely until the summer. It will be interesting to see if Kapanen finishes the year strong. If so, Leafs may not be able to afford him. If he struggles a bit, then they might be able to fit him in (if they could unload a contract, i.e. Marleau)
I would avoid the UFA rental market unless you could move Ferland for something like two 2nd rd picks and then move one of those picks to pick up a rental. The other possibility is to get a rental who you hope to sign longer term.
1) I think Ottawa has the most interesting possibilities. I am not talking about Duchene or Stone. I read somewhere that if Ottawa can keep Duchene (likely for a massive overpayment), then they see Colin White as their 2C of the future. Perhaps Tierney could be available if the Senators want picks/prospects. Tierney is not a goal-scorer, but is a solid center on pace for 45 assists this season. He could flourish with TT and Svech on the wings. Also see 3). Finally, there has been some talk about Jeff Carter. He is much like Getzlaf. Carter just turned 34. His production is down, but some of that is overall team struggles. Two good things about Carter–he does not have a no-trade/no movement clause according to CapFriendly; his salaries after this season are $3M next season then $2M for 20-21 and 21-22. That makes him quite a bit cheaper than Getzlaf who is $8.275 next season then $3M in 20-21.
2) I agree with you and darth that Huberdeau is likely offered to Columbus. However, if there is a 3-way to be had, then he should top the list. Neal is too much of a gamble. I think Getzlaf is unlikely and would only make sense for a serious run this season.
3) Ryan Dzingel in Ottawa is a UFA after this season. He scored 23 goals last season and is on pace for 30+ this season. If Ottawa keeps Duchene and/or Stone, then they likely won’t offer Dzingel the $6M or more he can demand on the open market. As a rental he is a great option.
If we are talking “big game” hunting, I would start with Jonathan Quick. The Kings need to rebuild and we have the picks and prospects to deal. We could bring on an established Cup winning goalie with decent tread left on his career (similar to Vegas and Fleury). Especially in a tough Eastern Conference these next several years, Quick may be what is needed to get over the hump. Nothing against Mrazek or Mac, solid as they are, just indicating they are not the tandem of the future and if we have a chance at landing a gem while grooming Ned along, do it. Of course, if anything this may be an offseason move.
I agree w/Breezy on Toffoli because he is proven a 20-30 goal scorer, 26 years old, and entering his prime. He may not be as flashy as the likes of Nylander/Kapanen/Stone/Huburdeau, but I think Toffoli’s style of play could fit well centering our 2nd line and cost us less to get. Could we see a package of Quick and Toffoli coming our way? The only hang up is I could see LAK wanting Necas, but perhaps they would accept our 1st + Faulk + CLT player(s).
Although it seems too soon to worry about the expansion draft, Seattle will get one of our unprotected players in June 2021. Planning for that eventuality will be effecting decisions on player movement between now and then. In the Vegas draft the Canes rebuild based youth movement was effective in keeping many players unexposed. minimizing the number players that needed protected status. That will not be the case in 27 months when that draft occurs and the Canes could lose a good player.
I am a contrarian on the expansion draft. While I would do a few small things to prepare for it (keeping Necas in AHL this season), the ultimate goal is to build a team so good that there is no possible way that the expansion draft will not hurt. You can only lose one player, so the damage is contained, and I find it more appealing than the extreme preparation for the expansion draft which is just not having enough good players.
With the Vegas draft GMRFs main problem was having enough players who qualified to be exposed. With the Seattle draft that will likely not be the case. Your position on the draft reminds me of mine when friends complain about capital gains taxes, i.e., a good problem to have. Re: Necas. Won’t the strategy about keeping Necas unexposed require keeping him out of another NHL season after this one?
I think RNH or Huberdeau fit what management is trying to do more than most. They have term, are young and have established themselves as reliable top-6 guys who both can play wing or center.
The reason Huberdeau is available though is because FLA is doing big game hunting of their own. They want Panarin and Bobo and that’s going to cost them quite a bit of money so they need to move salary out, while getting good pieces back. We have what they want, cheap high quality futures that cost almost no cap now but can develop into top line or pairing guys. It’s going to take an over-payment to get him and I think it would be worth it.
IMO it would probably cost something like Bean + Saarela (maybe Kuoks) + 2nd (maybe 1st.) If he is indeed available, the market is going to be very very very competitive with a bunch of teams offering top futures and prospects.
Brayden Schenn in SLT is another interesting player on a team that has risen from the dead lately but that has underperformed and is going to go through a makeover of some sort this offseason.
Like Faulk, one year left after this one, a Center, consistent, tough to play against. STL is going to need defense. Might be an interesting opportunity even if the term isn’t ideal.
Oh, and one more that I forgot, and yes, this is controversial: Eric Staal. Yes, he’s a rental, but I’ll bet we could get him to sign a team-friendly 2-3 year extension, ie, like JW. Not being “C” and being slotted behind Aho would do wonders for him and the lineup.
I think EStaal sold his home in Raleigh (unlike JW who was building a home in Cary even before he signed with the Canes) and he has established his family in MN and likes it there. I don’t see him returning.
This team cannot afford to think about the expansion draft in 2 years, not at the cost of trying to be the best it can be and make some noise in the interim.
The reason the canes fared so well in the Vegas situation is that they had a pretty lousy roster.
Fortunately that picture is slowly changing and hopefully will continue to do so.
I like the Jonny boy or RNH, I just don’t see them being available.
I think draisaitl is more likely to be available than RnH, due to his salary. He’s a good player but he signed for absolute top dollar, and Edm need to build a good roster that fits within the cap, which means any cap friendly players who are serviceable are going to be a huge commodity for them.
Is Mr. D worth his paycheck? Can the Canes afford that? I am not sure he’s the answer,. He’s great but I think he costs too much.
If tD were willing to open up his pocket book and collect all the quarters from his Lazy Boy the canes might take on the nasty lucic contract + Mr. D and have the Oilers pay 1.5 mill of his salary/cap, but that means the Canes are seriously handicapping themselves, because Lucic, though certainly huffering from the Edmunton bad luck, is not worth the money he is going to be paid.
Necas has not done much to impress. He still has a lot of potential but he’s not the superstar player we thought he might become, but he could still be a late bloomer.
ON the balance of things I’d offer him up in a trade for a more established talent.
Either for one of the two really desireable guys or for a combination of Quick and Tyler.
I’m not a fan of Getslav or Neal, not unless the Flames pay half his salary and I just don’t see the Flames do that unless they get something in return.
Did you see the article the other day about the culture issues in EDM? – Draisaitl was made the poster boy for his lack of effort.
Didn’t see that article, I think we don’t need those types of players, not even on the cheap, so a double no no there.
I don’t trade speculation well, so I don’t do it at all. 😀
That said, Waddell has made it clear that he is only interested in doing hockey trades that won’t hurt the team in the future. So I don’t see a collection of prospects for roster players. I do see roster players for roster players.
Waddell has also said no rental trade with the exception that if we trade Ferland we would seek to backfill his position.
Small Game Hunting for the Center Position:
1. Our faceoff % has tumbled without Jordan Staal. Luke Glendening (2 more years at $1.8M) from Detroit would provide cheap insurance in the interim or in case Staal is reinjured.
2. Derick Brassard (UFA at $3M) could be a reasonable rental option if we want some veteran scoring punch.
I actually like Brassard if the team decided to take on a rental and the cost was only a mid-round draft pick or tier B type prospect.
He has not had a good 2018-19 season thus far, but skill set-wise, he is what the Canes need as a more offense-leaning center who could fit on the power play. His 46 points in 72 games last season is not eye-popping, but it would be an upgrade offensively for the Canes at the center position.
The problem with trades is that you have to give up something of value to get something of value.
I think Huberdeau is a pipe-dream, but I agree….I’d push hard for him. What would he cost? At least one 1st rounder, one of our better prospects, and likely another pick and/or prospect. He is only 25 and signed for 4 more seasons after this one. My question is whether he’s 1)durable enough and, 2)is he the 60-70 point scorer of the last two seasons, or the mid- to high-50s point guy of his two previous seasons before that.
As much as I feel Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the perfect kind of player to fill the hole in our line up, I just don’t believe he’s available. The Oilers cannot afford to waste 2 or 3 years of McDavid rebuilding. Their going to have to tear some things down, get rid of some bad contracts, and hit the free agent market to at least get a couple of scoring lines and another defender. Given their salary cap issues, I’m not sure trading a Bean and a high-ish pick wouldn’t be one of the better offers….maybe throw in another prospect. If not, then I’d likely walk away from those discussions.
While I agree with the Toffoli option mentioned above, I also would take another run at Brandon Saad. I don’t think there’s a “Faulk deal” there, but maybe a pick and higher end prospect (Kuokkanen, Saarela, Geekie, for example) could get a deal done there. Their forward cupboard is pretty bare (outside of Entwistle and Barratt), so that might entice.
There were rumors about Andreas Athanasiou being available on and off this season. I’d probably make a run at him, but only with futures (or perhaps TVR). Kevin Hayes is interesting if you could get some sort of assurance that you could re-sign him, but I believe the price will be high on him.