Through ten games the Hurricanes have scored 34 goals for an average of 3.4 per game. That per game amount ranks third in the Central Division behind Tampa Bay and Dallas. If the Hurricanes can return to their core as a team that does not allow much defensively, that pace should be plenty.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks at some of the underlying numbers for the Hurricanes scoring through ten games.
Is it sustainable?
In trying to determine if the current pace is sustainable, one thing that jumps out immediately is unsustainably high shooting percentages for many Hurricanes forwards. The team has two players in rarefied air with shooting percentages north of 20 percent with Ryan Dzingel at 22.2 percent and Brock McGinn at 21.1 percent. Not far behind are Vincent Trocheck at 18.8 percent, Jordan Staal at 18.2 percent, Andrei Svechnikov at 18.2 percent, Nino Niederreiter at 17.2 percent and Warren Foegele at 14.3 percent. History suggests that most of these players will be able to maintain this pace.
Looking at scoring paces for players for an 82-game season also yields some goal scoring that likely will not be sustainable. Nieddereiter is on pace for 41 goals, McGinn 33 goals and Svechnikov and Trocheck both 49 goals. Maybe a player or two has a career year, but in total the pace is unlikely to continue.
Can anything balance inevitable slowdowns by some players?
An offsetting factor is the fact that the Hurricanes do have some players who are underperforming offensively and figure to pick up the pace. In seven games sandwiched around a COVID layoff, Teuvo Teravainen has only two assists and no goals. Similarly, Jaccob Slavin is off to a slow scoring start with two assists and no goals. When Brett Pesce and Dougie Hamilton both scores on Sunday, those were the first two goals of the season for the Hurricanes blue line. The groupg in total figures to pick up the pace at some point. The fourth line has also yet to really score. Regulars Jordan Martinook and Morgan Geekie have yet to score and the fourth-liners who have scored I think have unanimously done so playing on other lines. So the possibility is there for some players cooling to be offset by other players heating up.
What say you Canes fans?
1) In general, is the Carolina Hurricanes 3.4 goals per game pace sustainable over the course of the season?
2) Of the players off to hot starts, which are most likely to sustain something close to their current pace? Which are most likely to slow down?
3) Of the players not currently producing in terms of goal scoring, which do you see rebounding most strongly?